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28 January 2008

Standards and diversity

Mike Masnick's TechDirt article explored and important issue: Which is more important for innovation: A standard platform or competition? He evaluated with respect to gaming systems, but the arguments can be easily applied to many ecosystems - e.g., standardisation vs. diversity for OSs, Telcos, RIAs, etc.

IMHO the heart of the issue is:
… where the biggest economic contribution comes from: the platform or the applications on top of the platform. If it’s the platform, then competition makes sense. If it’s really the applications on top of the platform then it’s going to make sense for there to be a standard to let the competition occur on top of the standardized platform.
That said, I view innovation through the lens of what problem it aims to solve? As in other posts, I make it clear that innovation in isolation ends up in the vault, for engineers to prop their egos, but a very low ROI. :-) The question of standards and diversity is a cyclical one. Standards and platform hit the mark when they enable the business models which consumers seek (and for which they are willing to pay. The tendency is for the standards owners to dictate terms once standard becomes dominant, which is a cross-purposes to enabling business models. There is little-to-no profit motive in enabling new business models, and yet focussing elsewhere (e.g. operational efficiency) leaves the door open to competition in this arena. This drives the development of competing standards, which then triggers a new cycle of diversity, which eventually will result in another cycle of standardisation, and so forth.

03 November 2004

bush re-elected

from the AP - kerry concedes the election, making bush the winner. a statement is expected by 18.00 UTC.

too close to call

as of 19.00 UTC, the 2004 elections have added to the g.o.p.'s control over the u.s. congress. the presidential election is still very close. although two american national networks have predicted a bush victory in the critical state of ohio, kerry is not conceding victory therein, as there remain 250k votes which will not be counted for another day (bush leads only by 107k votes). if bush wins nevada, iowa (in both of which kerry still leads) and new mexico, and kerry gets wisconsin and michigan, bush still will not have enough electoral votes to win without ohio. as such, it will be the determining state, although bush is approximately 3 percent ahead in the nationwide popular vote. at this point the electoral vote is 249 bush, 220 kerry.

09 April 2004

more on outsourcing

as i continue to ramble on about outsourcing, i wanted to present some additional organised thoughts on why it isn't the panacea for the U.S. economy:

1. the U.S. labor force is not better trained, harder working, or more innovative than its foreign competitors. the argument that the U.S. will create new jobs in highly paying fields simply is not true. the U.S. has no comparative advantage or superiority in innovation. to assume that Americans are inherently more creative than foreign competitors is both arrogant and naive. now, the U.S. is currently empowering our competition with the resources to innovate equally as well as we. consider the number of new non-native Ph.D.s that leave our universities each year; consider the low rank in the U.S. in the education of mathematics and the sciences; and consider the large number of international students enrolled in the most difficult technical degree programs at the most prestigious universities in the U.S.

2. most of the best and high-paying jobs in the U.S. can be exported.
* doctors (even surgeons)
* mathematicians
* accountants
* financial analysts
* engineers
* computer programmers
* architects
* physicists
* chemists
* biologists
* researchers of all types

3. cost reductions and other benefits provide a strong incentive to outsource jobs. a company that decides to move its production overseas cuts its costs in many ways, including the following:
* extremely low wage rates
* the circumvention or avoidance of organized labor
* no Social Security or Medicare benefit payments
* no federal or state unemployment tax
* no health benefits for workers
* no child labor laws
* no OSHA or EPA costs or restrictions
* no worker retirement benefits or pension costs

besides cutting costs, there are other benefits to exporting jobs, including the following:
* tax incentives provided by the U.S. government
* incentives from foreign governments
* the creation of new international markets for the company's products (which ultimately empowers the company to turn a deaf ear to this country's problems and influence)
* the continued benefits of our legal system and the freedoms that the U.S. provides

the net effect of all of this is lower costs, higher revenue, higher profits, higher stock prices, bonuses for management, and the creation of wealth for a subclass that benefits from low taxes at the expense of everyone else.
at present there are considerable tax incentives for U.S. companies to outsource, most significantly earnings deferral.

as a society and as a country, the U.S. experiences many costs from outsourcing, including the loss of jobs, social costs, higher costs of raw materials and loss of national sovereignty. loss of jobs reduces the tax base, creates high unemployment benefit costs, and raises the cost of government retraining programs. displaced, unemployed workers have higher rates of child and spousal abuse, alcoholism, bankruptcy, divorce, etc. as China and India and other large populations grow, they demand huge quantities of oil, gas, steel and other basic raw materials. these costs are born by all Americans -- e.g. every time you fill your gas tank. and as a nation, the U.S. will lose its ability to make independent decisions that are in its best interest when it is dependent on foreign debt and foreign manufacturing.

08 April 2004

outsourcing

i've recently read Stephen Cohen and Brad DeLong's Thinking About Outsourcing, an excellent perspective on the issue. with my first-person perspective on hi-tech outsourcing, i have generally seen it fail badly. the lack of a legal framework for ip and information safeguards in many nations, the time zone and cultural differences, the communication barriers, and the lack of control from HQ all conspire to make the outsourcing strategy fail. this is especially acture where the work involved requires a high level of expertise and in-depth, hands-on experience.

i have worked at two organisations which had outsourced software development efforts for enterprise products, and both efforts were dismal failures.

one was with a team in bangalore, india; this team was erudite and possessed the necessary acumen for the work, but the other factors listed above doomed the effort. there was never enough presence from the architects and designers of the products at the remote site to keep the project on track, and despite daily conference calls and emails aimed at ensuring maximum communication between both sides, it always took at least a day to turn over even the minimum tasks or research. the work they produced didn't appropriately meet requirements, even though the coding was sound, and they always had to be pushed to ask the appropriate questions. their impl had to be sent back to be redone more than once, and in the end still required rework from the engineers in the home sites.

another was with a team in singapore. where bangalore is a tech centre, singapore is most definitely not (you can find a pool of talented investment bankers there, but your choice of hi-tech professionals is quite limited). the company could not find the appropriate personnel for the projects to be completed in singapore, and they managed to botch every project sent their way; every one required considerable engineering intervention from the engineers in the home sites. the company eventually decided to shut down the outsourcing effort and bring back all development to the U.S. (but quietly, unfortunately, so the illusory allure of outsourcing was never impacted).

in both cases, there were no actual cost savings for the companies involved. more money was spent in the outsourcing effort than would have been spent keeping the same work at the home sites. however, both claimed cost savings from a line item basis (the usual U.S. corporate technique used to hide failure).

although this isn't a statstically relevant sample, it does highlight how assuming outsourcing success using present metrics is poorly based. salary rate arbitrage and employment tax evasion - the main benefits of outsourcing - do not guarantee operative success, and ip based endeavours always involve barriers in expertise, practises, process, and communication. outsourcing is not the panacea as claimed by U.S. executives; it is simply a way to continue hiding the cost of doing business in an ambiguous expense category, and persist tried and true pennywise/poundfoolish management practises.

however, i have worked closely with two organisations which have successfully made use of offshore resources. these did not pursue outsourcing, but a globalisation strategy, where they invested and developed technology centres across the globe - over a number of years - to tap local research, development and marketing expertise. in both cases, the companies had these centres focus on specific technology areas, and did not unduly over-divide responsibilities. for example, one company made its bangalore centre entirely responsible for the implementation of a particular EAI stack, following specifications which were developed in north america, japan and europe, taking advantage of the communication and cultural infrastructure it had spent years developing.

what was the difference between these two globalising companies and the other two outsourcers? the former focussed on a long term strategy which would best leverage talent pools and resources at each centre, while the latter focussed on a short term strategy to cut salaries and other business costs.

this latter trend is most troubling, because organisations following it are in essence looking to exploit a foreign workforce through salary arbitrage. the focus is on slashing costs for the quarter and fiscal year and not on global presence. as soon as the workforce currently used becomes too 'expensive' for the organisation's taste, it picks up and moves elsewhere. there is no overall strategy other than to preserve executive compensation (one of the two outsource failures i mentioned above cut 15% of its workforce - in essence taking it out of the market in several product offerings - in the space of 6 months, while giving its CEO a 10% pay raise, where that money could have paid for those employees for more than a year and kept the company in lucrative markets).

another disturbing effect of this trend is the negative impact the development of U.S. hi-tech talent. the less jobs there are in the U.S. for hi-tech professionals, the less incentives university students will have to enter hi-tech fields. and the so-called 'higher-level' tech jobs (architecture & design) are not available to university graduates without considerable work experience. where are these grads going to get such experience? China? India? not bloody likely, where U.S. citizens have fewer chances of getting a work permit than Chinese or Indian citizens have in the U.S. flooding these markets with foreign workers would kill their hi-tech industries.

the last recession ('90-'93) illustrated that the U.S. educational system had a steep drop off in hi-tech grads and did not recover until 1998, when the boom had already been running for at least two years (the boom didn't really start until 1996). of the '90-'93 hi-tech undergrads, it has been estimated that 50% were lost to other fields/industries because no jobs were available to them until late 1994; until late '94 5-8 years experience were required for even the most basic jobs. approximately 25% of hi-tech masters/doctorate grads were lost to other fields/industries during this period for the same reasons.

what is worse in the '01-'04 recession is that the jobs from which required experience is developed won't be around in large part in the U.S.. U.S. citizens are largely barred from jobs in the hot foreign hi-tech markets unless they are hired by U.S. companies. yet U.S. companies have shown a disturbing trend of not hiring citizens for such jobs because they can still demand higher salaries than foreign workers. it is a vicious cycle, and the portents are not good for U.S. hi-tech and r&d primacy.

however, it may take the loss of this primacy to motivate the rank and file in the U.S. to act. presentlly, it seems there is not enough motivation among the electorate to enact any substantive change. the votes - whether actual or not - keep going to politicians who only serve to increase the incentives for outsourcing. the election of Schwarzenegger as governor of California was particularly distressing: California in particular has undergone an especially grim experience in the '01-'04 recession, yet the electorate blissfully continues to place political candidates who only serve to exacerbate it's economic woes. this political naïveté goes beyond 'panem et circenses', since the electorate continues to directly place (or at least believe that they are) into power those who are openly acting against their interests.

at one point or another, it will become apparent that U.S. corporate executives neither have a G-d given right to a job, nor a G-d given right to disproportional compensation, especially at the risk of shareholders, employees and the industry. hopefully this will happen before the U.S. experiences further economic damage, but i doubt it.

30 January 2004

berkeley 4th street

i consider myself very fortunate to be working at an office located on the famous berkeley 4th Street. the dining options here outstrip that of practically any other place I have ever worked.

unfortunately my employer recently ended the free lunch benefit, and as such the halcyon days of pasta shop and crépe vouchers are ended. however, this location is near a number of berkeley restaurants, and this is as good a time as any to explore them. :-)